Scoring Our Own Prediction: What We Got Right, and What We Got Wrong

20 August 2026

On 13 August, while everyone was still covering the Azadi sale, we wrote: "the real bargains arrive in a quiet 17-20 August window, without banners." That window closes today. So, the accounting.

What we got right

• The timing held. From 16 August the average discount settled at 41% and stayed there for five days. Before that it moved daily.
• "Without banners" was the most accurate part. On 19 August we caught a Rs 19,000 kurta set on Laam selling at Rs 9,000 — with nothing on the page saying the price had fallen at all. The deepest cut of the week, completely silent.
• Discounting went brand by brand. On the 18th every cut was Limelight; on the 19th every cut was Laam; the other 20 brands did nothing in between. We had not seen that pattern before.

What we got wrong

We said this window would bring a new wave of 60-70% cuts. That wave did not come.

What actually happened is that the deep stock was already there — 22,677 items sit at 50%+ today — but no brand cut beyond it during the window. So the second half of our advice, "wait for 17-20 August and you'll get the best price", did not hold. What is available today was available on 15 August too.

We are publishing this because if we only list the calls we got right, our next prediction is worth nothing. What we got wrong has to go on the record as well.

The lesson for next year

The real finding is this: after Azadi, "wait a bit longer" is bad advice. Once the sale ends, prices do not keep falling — they simply stop. Next year our advice will be to buy the deep cut when you see it, because it will not get deeper; the stock will just run out.

The full series: trendcompare.pk/news

Data: TrendCompare 22-brand hourly tracker. Discount figures exclude inflated "was" prices (anchor ≤ 3× current). Full methodology.

🐦 X: #AzadiSale · @Trendcompare